Abstract:
Effective Construction Investment Projects (CIP) contribute to sustainable economic
development. Evaluation of the CIP aggregate risk index as a fundamental indicator is among the
most topical issues in the Project management. Justification of the effectiveness of CIP related to
the development of potentially dangerous territories in Moldova requires consideration of the regional
geological conditions. On the terrain of Moldova, the greatest danger is the following geoenvironmental
processes: landslides, seismic phenomena, river and gully erosion, flooding and
waterlogging, subsidence, karst suffusion, subsidence, swelling and shrinkage, anthropogenic
processes. It should be noted the ineffective assessment of geoecological risks, taking into account
natural and difficult technogenic conditions. Despite numerous studies of uncertainty and risk, there
is no adequate unified methodology for assessing these phenomena within the CIP evaluation.
Analysis of traditional methods for assessing CIP under conditions of uncertainty and risk testifies to
their theoretical significance, but unfortunately, in some cases – limited practical applicability due to
the following reason: the mechanism for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis is not sufficiently
standardized. Traditional methods (discount rate adjustment, method of proper equivalents, scenario
modeling, building decision trees, Monte-Carlo simulation, etc.) are limited due to many simplifying
model prerequisites, especially in the long-term CIP management. It is advisable to create a
comprehensive risk-management model to improve the efficiency of CIP management under risk
conditions. This model should be based on scenario modeling, as well as cumulative construction of
the discount rate, taking into account the risk-free basis, inflationary expectations, and the weighted
average risk level.